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dc.contributor.authorCendejas Bueno, José Luis 
dc.contributor.authorFernando Muñoz, Félix
dc.contributor.authorFernández de Pinedo, Nadia
dc.description.abstractTime series filtering methods such as the Hodrick–Prescott (HP) filter, with a consensual choice of the smoothing parameter, eliminate the possibility of identifying long swing cycles (e.g., Kondratieff type) or, alternatively, may distort periodicities that are in fact present in the data, giving rise, for example, to spurious Kuznets-type cycles. In this paper, we propose filtering Maddison’s time series for the period 1870–2010 for a selection of developed countries using a less restrictive filtering technique that does not impose but instead estimates the cutoff frequency. In particular, we use unobserved component models that optimally estimate the smoothing parameter. Using this methodology, we identify cycles of periods, primarily in the range of 4–7 years (Juglar-type cycles), and a number of patterns of cyclical convergence. We analyze the historical processes underlying this last empirical finding: Peacetime periods, monetary arrangements, trade and investment flows, and industrial boosts are confluent forces driving the economic dynamism. After 1950, we observe a common business cycle factor that groups all economies, which is consistent with the consolidation of the so-called second
dc.publisherCliometrica. Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric Historyspa
dc.rightsAtribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 3.0 España*
dc.subjectHistorical business cyclesspa
dc.subjectSpectral analysisspa
dc.subjectUnobserved component modelsspa
dc.subjectMaddison’s time seriesspa
dc.titleA contribution to the analysis of historical economic fluctuations (1870-2010): filtering, spurious cycles and unobserved component
dc.typejournal articlespa
dc.rights.accessRightsopen accessspa
dc.description.extent758 KBspa

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Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 3.0 España
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