Forecasting Spanish economic activity in times of COVID-19 by means of the RT-LEI and machine learning techniques.
Resumen: The main aim of this paper is to analyse and estimate the behaviour of the Spanish economic activity in the next 12 months, by means of a Real-Time Leading Economic Indicator (RT-LEI), based on Google Trends, and the real GDP. We apply methodologies based on fractional integration and cointegration to measure the degree of persistence and to examine the long-term relationship. Finally, we carry out a forecast using a Machine Learning model based on an Artificial Neural Network. Our results indicate that the Spanish economy will experience a contraction in 1Q-21 and will require strong measures to reverse the situation and recover the original trend.
Identificador universal: https://hdl.handle.net/10641/3130
Fecha: 2021
Ficheros en el ítem
Ficheros | Tamaño | Formato | Ver |
---|---|---|---|
Paper_final (1).pdf | 333.4Kb | Ver/ |
Este ítem aparece en la(s) siguiente(s) colección(ones)
- BUSINESS ANALYTICS [141]