Globalization, Long Memory, and Real Interest Rate Convergence: A Historical Perspective.

Abstract

Globalization, a complex phenomenon, reflects the interaction of many technological, cultural, economic, social, and environmental trends. This paper investigates a narrow aspect of three waves of globalizations that occurred in the last 150 years, which refers to the stochastic properties of real interest rates and real interest rate differentials using fractional integration methods. The empirical results provide evidence that in all three globalization waves rejects the hypothesis that a unit root exists in the real interest rate series and supports the hypothesis of real interest rates converge across countries. We fail to find evidence, however, that the results are uniformly consistent across the three waves, suggesting that each globalization involves its own distinct stochastic dynamics.