Mean reversion and convergence of ecological footprint in the MENA region: evidence from a fractional integration procedure.

Abstract

This paper deals with the analysis of mean reversion and convergence of the ecological footprint (EF) in the MENA region. Using a long memory model based on fractional integration, we find that the results are very heterogeneous across countries depending on the assumptions made on the error term and the use of original versus logged data. Nevertheless, some conclusions can be obtained. Thus, mean reversion is decisively found in the case of Tunisia, and other countries showing some degree of reversion to the mean include Israel, Syria, Yemen, and Iran. Dealing with the issue of convergence within the MENA countries, similar conclusions hold and only Tunisia reports statistical evidence of convergence for the two types of errors. Additional evidence is found in the case of Syria, Yemen, and Jordania with uncorrelated errors and for Iran with autocorrelation. It is recommended that environmental policies targeted at stabilizing the trends in EF in the MENA region should not be indiscriminately applied in consideration of the heterogeneous nature of the series in the region