Poza Lara, CarlosMonge Moreno, Manuel2022-10-252022-10-2520211350-4851https://hdl.handle.net/10641/3130The main aim of this paper is to analyse and estimate the behaviour of the Spanish economic activity in the next 12 months, by means of a Real-Time Leading Economic Indicator (RT-LEI), based on Google Trends, and the real GDP. We apply methodologies based on fractional integration and cointegration to measure the degree of persistence and to examine the long-term relationship. Finally, we carry out a forecast using a Machine Learning model based on an Artificial Neural Network. Our results indicate that the Spanish economy will experience a contraction in 1Q-21 and will require strong measures to reverse the situation and recover the original trend.engAtribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 3.0 Españahttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/Leading economic indicatorsBusiness cycleGoogle trendsFractional integrationFCVAR modelMachine learningjournal articleopen access10.1080/13504851.2021.1994122