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dc.contributor.authorUtrero Rico, Alberto
dc.contributor.authorRuiz Hornillos, Francisco Javier
dc.contributor.authorGonzález Cuadrado, Cecilia
dc.contributor.authorGeraldine Rita, Claudia
dc.contributor.authorAlmoguera, Berta
dc.contributor.authorMinguez, Pablo
dc.contributor.authorHerrero González, Antonio
dc.contributor.authorFernández Ruiz, Mario
dc.contributor.authorCarretero, Octavio
dc.contributor.authorTaracido Fernández, Juan Carlos
dc.contributor.authorLópez Rodríguez, Rosario
dc.contributor.authorCorton, Marta
dc.contributor.authorAguado, José María
dc.contributor.authorVillar, Luisa María
dc.contributor.authorAyuso García, Carmen
dc.contributor.authorPaz Artal, Estela
dc.contributor.authorLaguna Goya, Rocío
dc.date.accessioned2021-06-17T10:28:30Z
dc.date.available2021-06-17T10:28:30Z
dc.date.issued2021
dc.identifier.issn0091-6749spa
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10641/2332
dc.description.abstractBackground: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a highly variable condition. Validated tools to assist in the early detection of patients at high risk of mortality can help guide medical decisions. Objective: We sought to validate externally, as well as in patients from the second pandemic wave in Europe, our previously developed mortality prediction model for hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Methods: Three validation cohorts were generated: 2 external with 185 and 730 patients from the first wave and 1 internal with 119 patients from the second wave. The probability of death was calculated for all subjects using our prediction model, which includes peripheral blood oxygen saturation/fraction of inspired oxygen ratio, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, lactate dehydrogenase, IL-6, and age. Discrimination and calibration were evaluated in the validation cohorts. The prediction model was updated by reestimating individual risk factor effects in the overall cohort (N 5 1477). Results: The mortality prediction model showed good performance in the external validation cohorts 1 and 2, and in the second wave validation cohort 3 (area under the receiveroperating characteristic curve, 0.94, 0.86, and 0.86, respectively), with excellent calibration (calibration slope, 0.86, 0.94, and 0.79; intercept, 0.05, 0.03, and 0.10, respectively). The updated model accurately predicted mortality in the overall cohort (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve, 0.91), which included patients from both the first and second COVID-19 waves. The updated model was also useful to predict fatal outcome in patients without respiratory distress at the time of evaluation. Conclusions: This is the first COVID-19 mortality prediction model validated in patients from the first and second pandemic waves. The COR112 online calculator is freely available to facilitate its implementationspa
dc.language.isoengspa
dc.publisherJournal of Allergy and Clinical Immunologyspa
dc.rightsAtribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 3.0 España*
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/*
dc.subjectCOVID-19spa
dc.subjectMortality riskspa
dc.subjectPredictive modelspa
dc.subjectSecond wavespa
dc.subjectExternal validationspa
dc.titleIL-6–based mortality prediction model for COVID-19: Validation and update in multicenter and second wave cohorts.spa
dc.typejournal articlespa
dc.type.hasVersionSMURspa
dc.rights.accessRightsopen accessspa
dc.description.extent3076 KBspa
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.jaci.2021.02.021spa
dc.relation.publisherversionhttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0091674921003432?via%3Dihubspa


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Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 3.0 España
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