Migrations in Spain : econometric models with demographic and economic variables (1950–2021)

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Abstract

This research addresses migrations with the analysis of the historical evolution of Spain in this subject, in the period 1950–2021, within the context of globalization and its determinants based on different theories. The main objective is to analyze the evolution of demographic dynamics and its relationship with economic indicators in Spain, having as a research question that there is a relationship between economic and demographic variables. Some of these variables are GDP per capita, unemployment rate, public health expenditure, aging index, dependency rate and foreigners. Particular emphasis has been placed on public health expenditure per capita and its spatial lag. The methodology was quantitative in nature. It was performed a multivariate analysis using econometric panel data models. With the latter, data broken down by Autonomous Communities or regions in Spain are used through panel data models that, by including more territorial data, make the results more robust and reliable. The results confirm the research questions made for the econometric models. For example, GDP per capita and public health expenditure have a direct and significant relationship with the number of foreign immigrants in Spain. However, aging index has an inverse relationship with foreigners, whereas no significant relationship has been found with unemployment rate.