GHG in EUROPE. Evidence of persistence across markets using fractional integration.

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Abstract

This paper investigates the persistence of GHG in Europe, evaluating the effectiveness of government policies, including the Kyoto Protocol and the EU Council commitment. Mean reversion properties, and the structure of the integration factor were examined to determine the degree of persistence across markets and assess policy effectiveness. The analysis focuses on CO2, CH4, and NO2 pollutants, with monthly data starting in January 2000 and ending in December 2021 from major European countries, and the US, Japan, Brazil, China, and India for comparison purposes. Empirical results show clear evidence of mean reversion in CO2 emissions observed across all countries, indicating certain degrees of stabilization. Similar patterns are seen for CH4, and NO2, observing reduced persistence of these pollutants; however not all countries exhibit mean reversion properties. Thus, these findings highlight policy progress in stabilizing GHG emissions, particularly for CO2, but underscore the need for further efforts to achieve a substantial emissions reduction.