BUSINESS ANALYTICS

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Exogenous shocks and time-varying price persistence in the EU27.
(Journal of Applied Economics, 2024) Maria Caporale, Guglielmo; Gil Alana, Luis A.; Imeri, Amir
This paper analyses monthly price persistence in the EU27 countries over the period 2010–2022 using a fractional integration framework, where the measure of persistence is the fractional differencing parameter d. In addition to full sample estimates, subsample and recursive ones are obtained to examine time variation. On the whole, the results provide clear evidence that both the exogenous shocks considered (namely, the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war) have generally increased price persistence in the EU27 (despite their heterogeneity), although the recursive estimates suggest that their impact might have peaked and might now be decreasing. Therefore, any policies adopted to counteract those shocks should be gradually phased out. The exceptions are the Southern European countries, where price persistence appears to have decreased, though in Italy the recursive analysis indicates that it is now rising sharply.
GHG in EUROPE. Evidence of persistence across markets using fractional integration.
(Ecological Indicators, 2024) Infante, Juan; Gil Alana, Luis A.; Martín Valmayor, Miguel Ángel
This paper investigates the persistence of GHG in Europe, evaluating the effectiveness of government policies, including the Kyoto Protocol and the EU Council commitment. Mean reversion properties, and the structure of the integration factor were examined to determine the degree of persistence across markets and assess policy effectiveness. The analysis focuses on CO2, CH4, and NO2 pollutants, with monthly data starting in January 2000 and ending in December 2021 from major European countries, and the US, Japan, Brazil, China, and India for comparison purposes. Empirical results show clear evidence of mean reversion in CO2 emissions observed across all countries, indicating certain degrees of stabilization. Similar patterns are seen for CH4, and NO2, observing reduced persistence of these pollutants; however not all countries exhibit mean reversion properties. Thus, these findings highlight policy progress in stabilizing GHG emissions, particularly for CO2, but underscore the need for further efforts to achieve a substantial emissions reduction.
La fiscalidad como instrumento de política económica en España: reforma tributaria y crecimiento económico.
(Thomson Reuters Aranzadi, 2017) Fernández Méndez de Andés, Fernando; Poza Lara, Carlos
Una radiografía de la empresa española en China.
(Universidad Nebrija, 2008) Mateo, Patricia; Poza Lara, Carlos
Una radiografía de la empresa española en México.
(Universidad Nebrija, 2012) Poza Lara, Carlos
Una radiografía de la empresa española en Chile.
(Universidad Nebrija, 2014) Poza Lara, Carlos
Una radiografía de la empresa española en Brasil.
(Universidad Nebrija, 2013) poza; Poza Lara, Carlos
Una radiografía de la empresa española en Colombia.
(Universidad Nebrija, 2015) Solana, Gonzalo; Poza Lara, Carlos
A Review of the Social Entrepreneurship Phenomenon.
Silva, Andrea Carolina; Poza Lara, Carlos
Entrepreneurship analyzes a very wide field of study and, at the same time, it converges with many topics, including the characteristics of entrepreneur, conditions that favor entrepreneurship, resources and funding sources, legislation, family businesses, succession protocols, learning and teaching of creating enterprise, and typologies of entrepreneurship. Social entrepreneurship is characterized by its input in creating value, and given the activities carried out by entrepreneurs, they have a big social impact, especially in communities and vulnerable groups but not exclusively, as many social entrepreneurial initiatives are forms of social benefit, and they do not circumscribe to particular conditions of vulnerability.
A Conceptual Model to Measure Football Player’s Market Value. A Proposal by means of an Analytic Hierarchy Process.
(Revista Internacional de Ciencias del Deporte, 2020) poza; Poza Lara, Carlos
The aim of this article is to propose a conceptual model to estimate football players’ market value, particularly in the position of forward. The model has been constructed by means of an Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the participation of 26 football experts from the Spanish Leagues. The model is composed of three kinds of primary attributes: sports variables, personal skills variables and professional variables. Within each primary attribute, there are a range of 6-10 variables whose weights have been calculated thanks to the football experts’ participation. The main results show that the sport variable is the most important factor to determine the market value, closely followed by personal skills. Furthermore, goals per match, competitiveness and contract duration are the most important directly observed variables to explain the forwards’ market value. Notwithstanding, there are other tangible and non-tangible factors that we should consider in order to improve the valuation accuracy
Persistence and Seasonality in the US Industrial Production Index.
(2023) Caporale, Giuglielmo María; Baños Izquierdo, Álvaro; Gil Alana, Luis A.; Poza Lara, Carlos
This paper uses a seasonal long-memory model to capture the behaviour of the US Industrial Production Index (IPI) over the period 1919Q1-2022Q4. This series is found to display a large value of the periodogram at the zero, long-run frequency, and to exhibit an order of integration around 1. When first differences (of either the original data or their logged values) are taken, evidence of seasonality is obtained; more specifically, deterministic seasonality is rejected in favour of a seasonal fractional integration model with an order of integration equal to 0.14 for the original data and 0.29 for their logged values, which implies the presence of a seasonal long-memory mean reverting pattern.
Measuring the circular economy in Europe: Big differences among countries, great opportunities to converge
(Sustainable Development, 2024) poza; Claudio Quiroga, Gloria; Poza Lara, Carlos
The main aim of this article is to analyze the circular economy (CE) transition of European countries between 2014 and 2021, using the European Commission approach of production and consumption, waste management, secondary raw materials, and competitiveness and innovation. To do so, we have built a multidimensional Circular Economy Index that classifies European countries according to their progress towards a circular economy. We used data from the Eurostat database and extracted all circular economy indicators for the EU27 countries plus Liechtenstein, Norway, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and Iceland. The time series starts in 2014 and ends in 2021 and we have used 15 variables grouped in four dimensions by means of a second order factor analysis with a Promax rotation. We have also applied a hierarchical cluster analysis to group countries by circular economy performance. Our results suggest an improvement in circular economy performance between 2014 and 2021 in Europe. We likewise find there is a ‘four-speed Europe’ in terms of a circular economy, highlighting the good results of the Netherlands, Germany, Italy, and Belgium.
Trends in temperatures in Sub-Saharan Africa. Evidence of global warming.
(Journal of African Earth Sciences, 2024) Chibuzor Umeh, Samuel; Gil Alana, Luis A.
Climate change has become a serious environmental matter of global concern. This paper attempts to verify if there is climatic change in Sub-Saharan Africa with the help of monthly station data from January 1901 to December 2020 on the mean temperatures of 48 countries of Sub-Saharan Africa. To do this, we employ fractional integration to account for the data’s probable long memory feature. However, because other statistical features such as linear trends and seasonality might also be present in the data, we propose a broad framework that treats these three characteristics (long-range dependence, time trends, and seasonality) in a unified treatment. We first note that long memory is an observed feature in the data and using the original data, the time trends are found to be significant in Southern and Eastern countries, with higher coefficients being observed when the post-War II data are employed. When looking at the anomalies with respect to selected periods, long memory is found in all cases, and a higher number of trends are detected. Thus, 41 countries show significant time trends, with the values being higher again in the post WW2 sample, suggesting that industrialization might have contributed to global warming. The results also indicate some degree of heterogeneity across the African countries.
Exploring socioeconomic similarity-inequality: a regional perspective.
(Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, 2024) Mouronte López, Mary Luz; Savall Ceres, Juana
Socioeconomic variables have been studied in many different contexts. Considering several socioeconomic variables as well as using the standard series clustering technique and the Ward’s algorithm, we rank the countries in the world and evaluate the similarity and inequality between geographic areas. Various relationships between variables are also identified. Additionally, since the Gini coefficient is one of the most frequently used metrics to measure economic inequality, with a global scope, we model this coefficient utilising machine learning techniques. 16 exploratory variables are utilised, which pertain to the health (9), economic (2), social labour protection (4) and gender (1) fields. International repositories that include time series of variables referred to these domains as well as education and labour market fields are used.
A Test for the Efficiency of Nigerian REITS Stocks.
(Review of Development Finance, 2023) Usman, Nuruddeen; Gil Alana, Luis A.; Babangida Umar, Hassana
In this paper, we have examined the time series properties of three Nigerian REITS stocks. Our results, based on fractional integration methods, indicate that two of the REITS series -Skye Shelter Fund (SFSREIT) and Union Homes (UHOMREIT- display a mean reverting pattern, though with a very different rate of reversion, being much faster in the case of UHOMREIT and are consequently inefficient. For UPDC REIT, however, we cannot reject the null hypothesis of a unit root, thus supporting market efficiency in this case, and implying permanency of shocks. For the rest of the series examined (Brent, S&P500, US REITS and the Nigerian Exchange All Share Index), mean reversion is only found for the S&P500 if the errors are uncorrelated. Policy implications of the results obtained are reported at the end of the manuscript.
Testing persistence of ammonia emissions using historical data of more than two centuries in OECD countries.
(Environment Systems and Decisions, 2023) Sakiru, Solarin; Bermejo, Lorenzo; Gil Alana, Luis A.
We examine the historical time series data of ammonia emissions from 1770 to 2019 in 37 OECD countries by looking at its statistical properties to determine if the series display time trends and persistence. These two properties are very common in environmental data, and our results indicate that reversion to the mean only occurs in the case of Finland, while the null hypothesis of a unit root cannot be rejected in the case of Norway or Iceland. In all the other cases, the estimated value of the differencing parameter is much higher than 1, and this is consistent for the two assumptions made regarding the error term. Thus, shocks are expected to be permanent in all cases except Finland. Policy implications of the empirical finding are elaborated in the manuscript.
The Euribor rate: a forecasting exercise based on fractional integration.
(Applied Economics Letters, 2023) Cuestas, Juan Carlos; Gil Alana, Luis A.
In this paper we analyse the evolution of the 12-month EURIBOR, with the aim of forecasting its trend in the forthcoming years. Using fractional integration, we find that the Euribor will return to a downward trend towards the end of 2023 and potentially reach negative numbers by 2025. This all assuming ceteris paribus.
Plato, Aristotle, and Locke on the accumulation of wealth and natural law.
(Journal of Philosophical Economics, 2024) Cendejas Bueno, José Luis
The possibility of a growing accumulation of wealth was something already considered by Plato, Aristotle, and Locke, under the concept of chrematistics. In this paper we show how the economic thinking of these authors cannot be fully understood without considering the intimate relationship they establish between politics and property accumulation. In addition to continuities and ruptures in the arguments, there can be seen a growing understanding of the phenomenon of accumulation of wealth in such a way that, when we arrive at Locke, an evident paradigm shift can be appreciated. This change is rooted in the contributions of scholastic thinking for which the acquisition of property through human labour or industry enjoys legitimacy according to natural law.
Money Growth, Money Velocity and Inflation in the US, 1948–2021.
(Open Economies Review, 2023) Castañeda, Juan E.; Cendejas Bueno, José Luis
Leading central banks did not anticipate the surge in inflation in 2021 and 2022. In our paper we assess whether changes in the velocity of money and monetary growth (broadly defined) explain long term inflation patterns in the US. We use a hundred-year sample to study the long term and the cyclical behaviour of money velocity. We find that changes in the velocity of money are short lived and revert to its mean. We also characterise the periods where changes in money velocity have kept closer to its mean as those of monetary equilibrium. We use a regime switching model to test for the impact of changes in the amount of money (broadly defined) and in money velocity in inflation over the medium and long term. Our model explains both the non-inflationary outcome of the Global Financial Crisis and the surge in inflation in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Persistence in Tax Revenues: Evidence from Some OECD Countries.
(Journal of Quantitative Economics, 2024) Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; García Tapia, Silvia; Gil Alana, Luis A.
This paper examines persistence in tax revenues in a set of 21 OECD countries over the period 1965–2021 using long-range dependence techniques based on fractional integration. The results imply that there are only a few cases of mean reversion: one for total revenue (Switzerland); three for VAT (Belgium, Italy, and Spain), and six for tax on income (Austria, Belgium, Finland, Spain, Sweden and USA). The analysis is also carried out for inflation in the same set of countries. Again the I(1) hypothesis cannot be rejected in most cases, mean reversion only occurring in Korea, Iceland, Norway and Sweden. However, stronger evidence of mean reversion is found for the differences between the three original tax series and inflation compared to the tax series themselves, which points to the existence of a linkage between taxation and inflation, especially in the case of VAT and tax on income.

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